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Months ago, the industry
suffered numerous blows including cigarettes increased state excise taxes, an
influx of cheap products and higher sales of counterfeit cigarettes. Those
factors have not disappeared, but their impact has begun to level off.
Altria Group Inc.'s Philip Morris USA
and R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Holdings Inc. increased spending on promotions at the
end of 2002, so comparisons to year-ago spending will become less of a drag on
earnings at the end of this year.
"This
should mark the last quarter of EPS (earnings per share) decline for most, as
year-over-year comparisons become easier" starting in the fourth quarter, said
Hong, who has "outperform" ratings on Altria and R.J.
Reynolds.
At the same time, some legal
problems for the industry have eased, analysts said. cigarettes online
Tobacco litigation has entered "the 'mop-up' phase, a period
that we expect to be characterized by fewer individual trials and a virtual
elimination of the potentially bankrupting cases that represented the most
substantial risk to the industry," said Prudential Securities analyst Rob
Campagnino.
In April, the U.S. Supreme
Court limited the amount of punitive damages in corporate liability cases. Since
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In addition, an
appeals court ruling overturning a $145 billion Florida class action verdict
against the industry in May removed a legal burden from all of the major
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The weaker dollar
should also help Altria, boosting the value of its overseas sales of cigarettes
and food when they are converted into dollars. Altria's earnings had been
hampered when the U.S. dollar was strong compared to other currencies. discount cigarettes
Merrill Lynch tobacco analyst Martin Feldman said the decline
in the value of the U.S. dollar over the last year should help results in 2003
and 2004.cigarettes
"Currency gains are allowing the company to meet its target cheap cigarettes earnings range,
rather than to beat or exceed it," Feldman said. buy cigarettes
Rival R.J. Reynolds sold off international rights to its main
brands years ago, so it is not impacted by shifts in the value of the dollar.
The company recently announced plans to slash 40 percent of its staff as it
narrows its focus to two brands, Camel and Salem.
R.J. Reynolds is not the only company trimming its staff.
Vector Group Ltd this week said it would cut about 150 positions as it closes a
cigarette manufacturing facility.
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